Home DEFENCE It might take decades to rebuild Ukraine

It might take decades to rebuild Ukraine

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Ukraine map and tank

The past two months have been unprecedented in World history. We were transformed into the era of the pre-Cold War reminiscent of World War II -1941-45. It seems mankind has forgotten the mass destruction that human civilization was subjected to at that point in time.

The most serious aspect of this conflict has been pushing Russia closer to China and creating a wedge in the new world order. It will not be long before we see a distinct group primarily anti-American countries like Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, and some Central Asian Republics aligning together. We would not be surprised if Venezuela, Armenia, and Syria also join.

Today, military supplies to Ukraine continue to abate with a view to prolonging the conflict. There are even reports of the presence of senior US Army officers guiding the Ukrainian Army in its riposte to the Russian forces. These developments are likely to prolong the end state and thereby lead to further destruction of the country.

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What then would be the end state and how do we see Ukraine post the culmination of the conflict? The end state as visualized suggests that Ukraine would get divided into two parts with major areas such as Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Mariupol getting enjoined as separate entities with a portion of the Black Sea and complete Sea of Azov in Russian control. A land bridge would get created between these regions with Crimea. Russia would have created a buffer zone with its security concerns taken care of.

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We would also have seen completer destruction of the economic and military might of Ukraine. The complete infrastructure of its civil and military industry would stand destroyed. As a matter of fact, most of it has already been decimated. Further, the Ukraine armed forces have suffered huge losses in terms of its military equipment especially tanks, UAVs, field artillery guns, multiple rocket launcher systems, and fighter as well as transport aircraft. It would take decades to build up a semblance of the economic and military might of Ukraine.

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Maj. Gen. Dr. Rajan Kochhar, VSM
Maj Gen Dr Rajan Kochhar, VSM, retired from the Indian Army, as Major General Army Ordnance Corps, Central Command, after 37 years of meritorious service to the Nation. Alumni of Defence Services Staff College and College of Defence Management, he holds a doctorate in Emotional Intelligence and is a reputed expert on logistics and supply chain management. Gen Kochhar, a prolific writer and defence analyst, has authored four books, including “Breaking the Chinese Myth” which was released recently. He is a Senior Adviser with Defence Research and Studies, Member, Manoj Parikkar Institute of Defence and Strategic Analyses, New Delhi, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) and Society of Airspace Maritime and Defence Studies (SAMDES). He is also on the Board of Management and faculty with Noida Institute of Engineering and Technology, Delhi NCR.

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