In the wee hours (2 a.m. to 6 a.m. local time) of October 26, Israel claimed that they had ‘pounded’ Iran with a series of airstrikes in three waves. They said they had targeted only military sites in retaliation for the Iranian missile attack of October 1, in which some 200 missiles were fired on Israel. The first such attack with over 300 missiles was in April. Both attacks had not resulted in significant damage.
The Nature of the Israeli Attack
The IDF claimed that they hit about 20 targets including Iran’s missile manufacturing facilities, surface-to-air missile storage sites, and other sites of military importance in Tehran, Khuzestan, and Ilam provinces. By their own admission, nuclear and oil facilities were spared to avoid escalation.
Amusingly, much greater details have emerged from American sources like ‘Critical Threats’ and not from any Israeli source. They list the targets struck as follows:
- Parchin military complex, east of Tehran, which is one of Iran’s most expansive and sensitive defence industrial sites. Iran has used the site to develop and manufacture explosive materials and advanced munitions, including drones and missiles. The IDF strikes targeted sophisticated equipment used to produce solid fuel for long-range ballistic missiles. Iran gets this equipment from China and will likely need months or possibly a year to replace it. The loss of this equipment will disrupt Iran’s ability to replenish its stockpile of advanced missiles capable of reaching Israel.
- The IDF also struck the Khojir military complex, which is tied to the Parchin facility and involved in the production of liquid- and solid-fueled missiles for the IRGC.
The Bluff of the Stupidity Rampant In Media Must Be Called Out
Videos uploaded on social media showed Israeli missiles raining down on Tehran and its surrounding areas. They also showed intercepting fire by Iranian air defence system. The videos uploaded on social media were conspicuous by absence of any ground explosions.
No verifiable information has been made available regarding the extent of damage inflicted. The zillion dollar question is exactly what damage they inflicted? Most importantly, where is the satellite imagery of the damage? The West touts satellite imagery for even a tank destroyed. Why they are not demanding the same here? In simple words, Israelis have been shying away from furnishing proof that could enable neutral observers to assess the damage.
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The Israelis cannot have a case that the factories or facilities they struck were so completely automated that no men were present there. Question is, in the entire operation involving wave after wave of over 100 Israeli fighters attacking with surface-to-air missiles, an attack in which they committed over one-third of their entire air force, how is it that only four Iranian soldiers were killed and they are not able to produce any evidence of damage commensurate with the sheer volume of the attack? They spent millions of dollars in mounting perhaps the largest single air attack since the Second World War by a non-superpower and end up killing just four guys; who will not be suspicious?
If you apply a little critical faculty, you can easily see through the sort of lies that are being spread in media. One website, for example, cited “An individual in the US administration, who wanted to stay unnamed, shared in a Wall Street Journal’s conversation how Israel’s recent attack had significantly incapacitated Iran’s (air) defence, taking down their final three S-300 missile defence apparatus out of the total four they initially had. (One is claimed to have been knocked out earlier this year) The insider also disclosed that the Iranian interception measures could hardly resist the Israeli aircraft, as the bulk of the launched missiles successfully struck their intended spots.”
Fact is the S-300 is not a small system that could be hidden from a satellite’s cameras. It consists of a surveillance radar, a low-altitude detection radar, and an engagement radar; missile launch vehicles, such as the 5P85-1 or 5P85S/5P85T TEL-Transporter Erector Launcher; 30N6 or FLAP LID fire control system; and 54K6E command post.
Where is the satellite imagery showing ‘before’ and ‘after’ the strike in respect of the claimed damaged S-300 system near Eslam Shahr southwest of Tehran? And, who is this unnamed person and why he has to remain unidentified? If there is damage, it is for the world to see, what does he gain by remaining anonymous? Obviously, it is fake news.
Most outrageously, the website ‘Critical Threats’ admits that the satellite imagery available with them is quite blurry. Question is why it should be blurry in the first place? There is no weather related issue for the excellent optical cameras of satellites. They also admit, “It is not yet clear which component of the S-300 system the strike hit” near Tehran.
Fallacy of Israel Having ‘Conveyed a Message’
Embarrassed at not having proof of damage, a section of the Western media has argued that the attack was intended to “deliver a message to Iran that Israel could bypass Iran’s defence systems undetected and paralyze them”. This poor attempt at window-dressing is even more fallacious. If, according to Israel, they have conveyed this message, it means that, in reality, they can kill Khamenei and the president of Iran also by bombing their houses the way they have killed Nasrallah of Hezbollah and Sinwar of Hamas.
If Israel can indeed bypass all Iranian air defences, let them use their entire air force and level the whole government machinery in Tehran in one massive blow without going nuclear. What prevents them? May be that would trigger a regime change.
In fact, the proclaimed capability to bypass or neutralize air defences of Iran would make for all the more provocation for Iran to go all out in its efforts to make a nuclear weapon. And second, they would further arm and equip their proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis to attack Israel without getting directly involved.
The simple strategic fact, which eludes these people, is that a ‘proven demonstration’ of a side’s vulnerability is a sure recipe for instability as it would force that side into irrational responses.
There is no reliable evidence to suggest so far that the S-300 or S-400 systems have been rendered useless or that they are worthless anyway. Yes, I am aware that arms manufactures all over the world indulge in overhyped sales pitch when marketing their products, but to claim that Israel made short work of the Russian-made air defence systems is cheap and motivated Western propaganda.
The website ‘Defence Today’ claimed that Israel’s Rampage missile was used to attack them. Rampage is a 570 kg air-to-surface missile with a 150 kg high explosive warhead. They mean to tell us that multiple explosions of warheads containing 150 kg HE each could not produce damage that could be seen by satellites. As the old British idiom for a far-fetched story goes, ‘Tell it to the Marines’!
The Military Impossibility of an All-Out Iran-Israel War
Military geography and strategic constraints dictate that short of a nuclear war, there is no way Israel could bring Iran down to its knees. Israel and Tehran are, as the crow flies, 1,600 km apart. There is no question of their ground forces fighting crossing through sovereign countries. Hence there is no question of comparing the relative sizes of their armies. Shockingly, even the international media has fallen into this trap.
This means that the only way they can engage is through the airplanes and missiles or drones. Now, we must keep one thing in mind. This is not England or Germany bombing each other at 932 km in the Second World War. Third, there is simply no comparison of the industrial resources of Israel with England of the WWII, with the enormous resources of the Empire at its disposal.
England produced 27,528 tanks, a staggering 131,549 aircrafts and dropped a whopping 1,030,500 tons (that is over a million tons) of bombs over Germany. Israel depends on the USA and other countries for its bombs and other munitions. It has dropped 75,000 tons bombs on a very small area (360 sq km) like Gaza strip and reduced it to rubble. Do not even talk about the size of Iran and its cities.
There is no way a country of the size of Iran can be brought down to its knees by air war alone. Forget it. If you have to, the ONLY option is to nuke it.
And if they do, is there any reason to believe that Russia will remain silent? In fact, Russia could move in if civilian areas are struck a la British bombing of German cities, the so-called strategic bombing or area bombing or saturation bombing.
Sir Arthur Travers Harris, Marshal of the Royal Air Force, was the head of RAF Bomber Command in the period 1942 through 1945. During that time, the RAF dropped almost a million tons of bombs. Half fell on German cities. A firm believer in mass raids, Air Marshal Harris developed the saturation technique of mass bombing—that of concentrating clouds of bombers in a giant raid on a single city, with the object of completely demolishing its civilian quarters. Conducted in tandem with American precision bombing of specific military and industrial sites by day, saturation bombing was intended to break the will and ability of the German people to continue the war. Harris applied this method with great destructive effect in Germany—most notably in the firebombings of Hamburg and Dresden.
This means that, in the end, short of a nuclear war or a CIA/Mossad-engineered regime change in Iran, Israel-Iran conflict will continue like this only—generally sparring with moves subtly intimated in advance.
The Farce Screams Out Aloud
Khamenei said the attack should not be ‘exaggerated or downplayed’ while refraining from pledging immediate retaliation. The question is why? Are you going to take the insult lying down? Iran’s Tasnim news agency said that Israel will face proportional reaction for its actions. However, they did not bother to explain what that proportional response could possibly be?
After the attack, Israeli military chief Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said they would strike Iran ‘very, very hard’ if it made the ‘mistake of launching another missile barrage at Israel’. Halevi also said that certain targets in Iran had been set aside “because we may be required to do this again”. In other words, he wants the world to believe that this attack was for demonstration only.
Do they think that the world is such a fool that it will ignore the military history of the world of over two millennia and start believing that warfare is a mathematical game in which if ‘A’ struck ‘B’ with some kind of force ‘X’, ‘B’ could retaliate with some kind of force ‘Y’, and both sides would agree that the response was proportionate, just and fair? This is plain and simple, unadulterated crap. It has never happened in the history of war. Nations do not regard strikes and counter-strikes, attacks and counterattacks as some sort of ‘punishment’; there being no question of agreeing on the justness of it.
The fact that such outrageous notions have been propagated in international media is further proof of the universal grip of stupidity on public discourse where people have simply stopped questioning the bullshit doled out to them in print, on TV and on social media.
The Iran-Israel conflict has all the signs and symptoms of the WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment)-style ‘fixed fight’, ‘staged fight’, ‘set-up fight’ or what is known in colloquial Hindustani as ‘Noora Kushti’. The WWE is at least intellectually honest that it carries the word ‘entertainment’ in its name itself and does not cheat the viewers. Viewers know the fight is for entertainment only and all the spectacular throws, holds, chokes and wrestlers’ expressions of terrible pain are outright bogus.
