Have you wondered why there is no lasting peace in the world and at any given time one or the other 200 odd countries are always fighting a war or being provoked to do so – from behind the scene?
Well, that is because there is no ethics in war – just opportunities to exploit and make hay while the sun shines.
This holds true for the month-long Russia- Ukraine conflict – where the countries from across the world seem to be placing their bets as to who will win the war, and at what cost – instead of making a serious attempt to stop the fighting. For a number of them the continuation of the war is an opportunity to sell their military hardware and see how their equipment performs in actual battle conditions – without facing the risk of war…
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred a wave of arms transfers to the besieged country. More than 20 other countries have promised, sent, or assisted in moving arms and equipment to Ukraine. The United States, which is the world’s largest arms dealer has committed $1 billion worth of small arms, Javelin anti-tank, Stinger anti-aircraft weapons as well as other guns, and ammunition to Ukraine.
The U.S. has reportedly allowed Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to re-export American man-portable Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles — to Ukraine. The United States is also shipping $350 million worth of additional military equipment to help Ukraine fight off Russia’s “brutal and unprovoked assault”.
More than a dozen other NATO countries and several non-NATO European nations have started or expanded their weapons shipments to Ukraine. The EU has earmarked $503 million for air-defense systems, anti-tank weapons, ammunition, and other military equipment for Ukraine’s armed forces as well as non-lethal supplies such as fuel, protective gear, helmets, and first-aid kits.
Britain has promised to provide military support, including lethal defensive weapons. Royal Air Force C-17s made special flights to deliver a consignment of much-needed light anti-tank weapons while France may offer anti-aircraft hardware. Canada has sent a special operations unit for training and has not ruled out sending defensive weapons.
Germany which till recently was against weapon exports to conflict zones has now committed to supply some 5,000 helmets, 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger-class surface-to-air missiles to help Ukraine defend itself. Belgium is providing 2,000 machine guns and 3,800 tons of fuel to the Ukrainian army.
The Czech Republic is delivering 30,000 pistols, 7,000 assault rifles, 3,000 machine guns, several dozen sniper guns and about a million cartridges.
Netherlands has dispatched sniper rifles and helmets, while 200 Stinger anti-aircraft missiles are likely to be delivered as “soon as possible”. Netherlands is also sending anti-tank system equipped with 400 rockets capable of hitting moving targets between 300 and 600 metres away with great precision.
Third party transfer of arms and armaments to conflict prone nation is extremely common in modern warfare. But the moot question is whether the transfer of arms alone, help the Ukrainian army withstand the numerically and effectively superior Russian Armed forces. Some examples of such third party meddling and arms transfer is how Pakistan supplied weapons made in USA to anti-Soviet mujahedeen in Afghanistan in the 1980s or Iran supplied weapons to the Shiite militias in Iraq in their fight against U.S. troops between 2003 and 2008.
Another common practice is to allow armed militants set up sanctuaries, base camps and logistics hubs in neighboring countries.
“We will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine,” U.S. President Joe Biden tweeted.
What he meant to say was that there is no direct military confrontation between the United States and Russia, which is true. But at the same time it is a fact that United States and its European allies are in the midst of a full-blown proxy war with Russia and have flooded Ukraine with more than 17,000 anti-tank weapons and thousands of anti-aircraft missiles.
The whole point behind this proxy warfare is to keep a low profile and make Russia bleed – without a direct confrontation between United States and Russia.
There was a time when Ukraine’s defense industry accounted for 30% of Soviet defense production and 40% of its scientific research. Most Soviet ICBMs, Russia’s only aircraft carrier and a number of Russian military ships were built in Ukraine.
According to an estimate there are roughly 1.2 million legal and around 4 million illegal weapons mostly fully-automatic military weapons in Ukraine.
Most of the arms and ammunition being sent to Ukraine— handheld or shoulder-fired anti-tank and antiaircraft systems are exactly the kinds of weapons needed for an insurgency in the post conflict phase. Even if the Russian army manages to capture all of Ukraine, one of its first objectives would be to seal Ukrainian borders to prevent arms from reaching anti-Russian insurgents. This is not going to be easy as Ukraine’s border pass through Carpathian Mountains and dense forests near Poland which are not easy to seal completely.
Clearly the aid alone is unlikely to play a decisive role in swinging the tide in Ukraine’s favor and might compound the risk of escalation. Nevertheless, arms transfers by the United States and others now are an investment in anti-Russian resistance, even if Russia does crush Ukraine’s regular army in future.
Over the past decade, Ukraine has earned the reputation of being one of the world’s most active suppliers of illicit small arms in return for hard cash. Ukrainian arms have fuelled some of the world’s bloodiest conflicts in Iraq under Saddam Hussein, or the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Ukraine which used to be a front-line state of the Eastern Bloc, inherited a huge stockpile of arms when it broke away from the Soviet Union in 1991. After the newly independent state moved towards the NATO and downsized its military, its Soviet weapons fell into disuse. Some were sold off legally, but most of it found its way into the black market.
Russian arms dealer Victor Bout, Israeli-Ukrainian businessman Vadim Rabinovich, and former director of the Ukrainian secret service allegedly sold millions of dollars’ worth of weapons to the Taliban during the late 1990s.
High-level corruption in the military facilitated the flow of illegal weapons from Ukraine on the basis of forged export documents or falsified end-user certificates. Many soldiers reported to have “lost” their weapons, while some commanders were caught selling off weapons in bulk.
According to a Ukrainian parliamentary inquiry Ukraine lost $32 billion worth of military assets due to theft, discounted sales and lack of oversight. Many of these missing weapons found their way into the hands of underworld buyers around the globe.
The ease with which arms shipments moved through official channels led many observers to conclude that high-level Ukrainian officials were either involved in the deals or else facilitated the illegal trade by looking the other way. However the Ukrainian government has shown little interest probing the organized crime and no Ukrainian officials or politicians has been tried or convicted for arms dealing.
The one and only official inquiry ended abruptly after the official heading it was court-martialed and the report vanished. The members were silenced and the journalist who leaked some of the inquiry’s findings was shot and wounded.
However the biggest problem is how to prevent these weapons from ending up in the wrong hands. Providing essential equipment to Ukraine could help combat a Russian invasion but supplying them with portable, lethal, high-value weapons and armaments can amount to inviting trouble.
This might seem to be a worst-case scenario, but there are precedents. For instance the U.S. supplied Stinger portable surface-to-air missiles to Mujahideen fighters in Afghanistan to fend off Soviet helicopter gunships but these turned up in the black markets of Pakistan. The CIA tried to buy them back but wasn’t entirely successful as many of these missiles had already been bought by the Hezbollah.
Hence irrespective of whether Russia or Ukraine win the war – as always the weapons manufacturers and arms dealers will stand to gain and make a big profit.
