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HomeNEWSInternational NewsThe road ahead: Donald Trump's 2nd term as President of USA

The road ahead: Donald Trump’s 2nd term as President of USA

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Donald Trump is set to assume the title of the 47th President of the United States (POTUS), taking on what is often referred to as the most powerful job in the world. Having already served from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021, Trump’s return to the presidency is shaped by his reputation as a businessman and opportunist, with a focus on deal-making rather than ethical or moral considerations. His first term and his recent campaign for re-election were marked by right-wing populism, incendiary political rhetoric, and insults. As he is getting ready for his second term, it will be exciting to evaluate the potential impact on the geopolitical and geostrategic landscape.

Understanding Donald Trump’s first presidency is crucial for extrapolating potential future actions. One of the most striking aspects of his first term was his attempt to undermine science, public health, and environmental issues. During his 2016 election campaign, Trump dismissed critical facts related to the COVID-19 pandemic, calling Dr Anthony Fauci, then the President’s chief medical advisor, a disaster. He also suggested that unproven remedies, such as snake oil could cure the virus and withdrew the U.S. from the World Health Organization (WHO) amid the pandemic. Trump dismissed the scientific consensus on climate change and global warming. He rolled back numerous regulations that protected the public from environmental harm. Many of his actions suggested a disregard for democratic values and the free press. For months, there were no official White House press briefings. He largely conducted foreign policy through social media, particularly Twitter (now X). Trump disgracefully mentioned those who stormed the US Capitol during the certification of Joe Biden’s presidential victory as patriots. His use of Twitter ultimately led to his permanent ban from the platform. This is just a brief glimpse of his behaviour and actions during his first term.

Donald Trump taking oath of office U.S. Capitol building in Washington, D.C. on January 20, 2017

The second term of Donald Trump’s presidency could have significant implications for US foreign policy, defence actions, the defence industry, and the economy.

Trump currently argues that most trade relationships the US has are asymmetrical. The state receives more goods than the others buying the made in US goods. Also, he argues that when it comes to the US products, the other states have very high tariffs. For some time now he is giving an example of states like India having high tariffs on imported motorcycles, especially Harley-Davidson.

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It is known that Trump would like to revolve his economic policies around his America First philosophy.  He would be keen to reduce the US trade deficit. He may opt for tax cuts, deregulation, and protectionist trade policies. There could be further tax cuts for businesses possibly or spurring short-term economic growth. There could be a global shift in the global supply chain if he opts for reshoring manufacturing jobs, mainly in critical industries like semiconductors and defence. He is unlikely to allow China to have a free run in global economic structures. He will engage in trade wars, particularly with China knowing fully well that this may lead to global economic volatility and would affect global markets and inflation rates. His focus could be to have technological superiority in various domains and possibly that is why he has Elon Musk on his side.

Trump is likely to exploit the ongoing wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East to push for more defence spending and would be keen to ensure the importance of the US military superiority. He understands that China is not only an economic threat. He is likely to push for more private sector solutions when it comes to defence preparedness.

Obviously, this would benefit defence contractors, who could see expanded contracts for weapons systems, ammunition, and military technology used in ongoing conflicts. It would be of interest to see if he expands the military presence of the US forces in regions of strategic importance by giving an excuse for ongoing wars. This could include establishing new military bases or strengthening existing ones. All this may generate demands for the US infrastructure industry and defence industry. He may use this opportunity to shape the geostrategic narratives.

The president-elect of the US has consistently shown little fondness for international institutions like the United Nations. His presidency could pose significant challenges for both the European Union and NATO. For NATO, there is concern that Trump might seek to end the war in Ukraine on terms that favour Russia. He is willing to engage directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump’s stance on Ukraine is clear: he has shown little enthusiasm for the country, nor for many NATO allies. He wants NATO countries to contribute more to defence spending and is not keen for his country to shoulder the financial burden of securing other nations. It remains to be seen whether the Trump administration would continue military aid to Ukraine without any attractive deal favouring the US.

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Trump wants the US to acquire Greenland and the Panama Canal since they are in his view critical to the US national security. Interestingly, he also wants the merging of Canada with the US. He is clearly demonstrating his imperialistic agenda. All in all, it is expected that NATO will likely lead to uncertainty over the future of the alliance.

Also Read: Assassination attempt on Trump and the farce of VIP Security

In his second term, Trump is expected to continue his unconventional and often controversial approach to governance. His foreign policy could take multiple directions, shaped by existing conflicts and other pressing global challenges like North Korea, ISIS, Syria, and Taiwan. While he is unlikely to seek new military interventions, Trump has consistently emphasized that he does not want the US to act as the world’s policeman. Instead, he would likely pursue a policy of economic nationalism. Dealing with Trump will not be easy for global leaders.

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Group Captain Dr Ajey Lele
Group Captain Dr Ajey Lele
Gp Capt Dr Ajey Lele is Deputy Directer General, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. An ex-Indian Air Force Officer, he holds a Master's degree in Physics (Pune University), an MPhil in Defence and Strategic Studies (Madras University), and a doctorate from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi. His areas of research include issues related to Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), Space Security, and Strategic Technologies.

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