Pakistan presents an amusingly enigmatic object to most Indians. If we go by the collective wailing that we notice unfailingly in the media following every Pak-sponsored terrorist attack, it would appear that the Indians and their media are in some sort of awe of a country which is one-fourth our size in area and nearly one-sixth in population and yet is able to send in terrorists inside our territory at will to spread murder and mayhem. On the other hand, whenever a soldier is killed in some terrorist attack, the popular refrain heard during the funerals is: “Ek missile maar kar Pakistan ko tabah kar dena chahiye”. In other words, people believe that Pakistan is a renegade which needs to be ‘punished’ and all that we need for this puny irritant of a country is just one missile to destroy them utterly.
Both these notions cannot be correct simultaneously. If we can deal with Pakistan in one blow, why don’t we do it? And if, for whatever reason, we cannot do that, it would mean that Pakistan is not that ‘insect which can be swatted any time’.
Obviously, people and the media have a very poor understanding of how exactly does the India-Pakistan military equations and dynamics work; what restrains us from destroying them, what restrains them from launching a full-scale attack on us in spite of pin-pricking and irritating us all the time; and what exactly both countries are capable of doing to each other once the stops are pulled. To understand these issues, it is necessary that we understand first where Pakistan stands today.
Pakistan’s Economic Crisis
Many readers might be able to recall the long lines and stampedes resulting in deaths of several people when wheat flour was being distributed for free—all for just three bags of ‘aatta’ of 10 kg each! That alone speaks volumes about the economic condition of Pakistan.
On June 30, the inflation for FY 2024 was 23.4% and the year before that it was 30%. It is not only the poor who are suffering. The nation as a whole is suffering. There is a power crisis because power plants are in such serious debt that they do not have oil or gas to operate. As a result, malls for the middle and upper-middle classes are closing at 8:30 p.m.
The country is, in a way, currently running on foreign loans taken on high rates of interest. Pakistan’s total debt is $224 billion, out of which external debt is $128 billion. They have to repay $80 billion by mid-2026.
As such, it would appear that Pakistan too could crack the way Sri Lanka had cracked. But, here is the catch! The West would not let that happen to a nuclear power. It was not reported in India widely but on July 15, the IMF has bailed them out. It is $7 billion, 37-month loan program to be effective from 2025. Incidentally, this is not their first bailout. They have had 22 bailouts since 1958. That is, one bailout every 3 years; giving them a sort of license to mismanage—all because they have traditionally sided with the West.
The Unending Political Crisis
Pakistan is not new to political crises. The present crisis, however, originated from the unholy removal of Imran Khan from power, the foisting of some 196 cases on him, his arrest, and his continued incarceration for over a year now. However, to their dismay, the Sharifs and the army discovered that Imran’s popularity has not shown any sign of declining in spite of his being in jail. To cap the lot, they massively rigged the election in February to deny Imran’s party its due.
It is in view of his unflagging popularity that the army is having second thoughts about Imran. Many observers including Hamid Mir believe that the army may eventually enter into a deal with him and he, in turn, may soften his hostility towards the army. Once again, though not widely reported in India but on August 4 he was allowed a written exchange with Reuters. This also strongly suggests so. Imran said it would be foolish not to have excellent relations with the army. He also said that his previous criticisms had been directed at individuals, not the military as an institution. He exonerated the US also. Imran has offered to hold ‘conditional negotiations’ with the military but not with Shehbaz—if ‘clean and transparent’ elections were held and the bogus cases against his supporters were dropped.
Army Wields Political Power
Given the essentially feudal nature of the society, democratic as well as political institutions in Pakistan are fundamentally weak ab initio. However, it would be a mistake to think that the military, the mullahs and the political class are antagonistic to each other—they are just slicing their share of the pie. They are actually inextricably linked up, taking advantage from each other. The military has the upper hand in this game because so far they have had the maximum physical power in comparison to street power of politicians and mullahs.
The Pak army has learnt that it is better to subvert democracy and wield power rather than supplant democracy. That’s why there has been no coup since Musharraf’s, but army’s real power has been increasing every day.
Terror Groups in Pakistan
Pakistan is full of terrorist groups of all sorts. They can generally be divided into five types.
- Globally Oriented: Al Qaida; AOIS; ISKP (former TTP based in Afghanistan but operating in Pak)
- Afghanistan Oriented: Afghan Taliban; Haqqani Network
- India & Kashmir Oriented: Lashkar, Jaish, HUJI, HUM, HM (Their shadow outfits like Kashmir Tigers; The Resistance Front, Kashmir Freedom Fighters and People’s Anti-Fascist Front)
- Domestically Oriented: TTP; BLA; Jaish al Adl
- Sectarian/anti-Shia: Sipah e Sahba; Lashkar e Jhangvi; Tehreek e Labbaik
Civil Unrest Cannot Be Discounted
Given these problems, the possibility of civil unrest in Pakistan cannot be discounted. After all, it had happened in Sri Lanka and recently, it happened in Bangladesh too. If it happens, it will be a serious challenge to whoever is in power. It is difficult to predict what turn it could take.
War Hysteria Whipped Up By WhatsApp Factory and Entertainment Media
We discussed in the beginning that on one hand the Indian media and people are tormented by Pak-sponsored terror attacks in India and, on the other hand, they seem to believe that if India presses the button of just one missile, Pakistan would be annihilated. Both these notions contradict each other. If we are really capable of effacing Pakistan from the face of the earth, why are we putting up with terror attacks sponsored by them? Why don’t we destroy them and then rest in peace forever?
By God, films like Tiger 3, Pathan, Agent Vinod, Baby and the like (not to speak of the two Gadar series films) want the viewers to believe as if “we own Pakistan and our valiant agents can do whatever they want to do.” In Tiger 3, a couple of our secret agents virtually take over the official residence of the PM of Pakistan and fight with scores of Pakistani soldiers there to extricate Pak PM from her own rabid general!
Fact is such ridiculous notions have been created and sunk in the collective subconscious through the hyper-nationalistic and unrealistic crap they are fed several times daily by the WhatsApp Factory and the popular entertainment media. There is nothing in the world, which Indian people like more than imagining Pakistan ground to dust under our boots. These wars are, of course, fought in people’s drawing rooms; at roadside tea stalls; in newspapers; and most virulently, in TV debates. We have been forced to live in an era of “Phony Wars and Fragile Peace”.
Let Us Not Complicate an Already Complicated Situation
Pakistan’s dilemma can, in a way, be summed up by the following lines from Shakespeare’s Hamlet:
To be, or not to be: that is the question:
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them? To die: to sleep
It does not seem likely that they would be able to muster the resolve to solve their problems. Pakistan seems beyond recovery—economically, politically or, for that matter, even socially.
Under these circumstances, the Deep State of Pakistan might very well be tempted to divert the attention of their ‘distressed people’ by the old trick of India-baiting. As the eminent scholar Dr. Samuel Johnson had said, “Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel.” There is nothing in the world, which can galvanize the Pakistani public better than a conflict-like situation or conflict with India and make them forget the ugly realities of their country.
The Deep State desists from a rash act only because there is always a serious risk that a conflict-like situation could quickly and uncontrollably escalate into full-blown destructive war. The trick lies in provoking and hurting India but not provoking it beyond a point. This is the reason that they have not given MANPADS like the Stinger missiles to terrorists because if they shoot down a military or civilian aircraft with it, the outraged public opinion will leave no option for India but to go for a full-scale war.
Also Read: The politics behind the release of 93000 Pakistani POWs
Second, now we are both nuclear powers and a full-blown war might further escalate into a nuclear exchange, which could, depending on the resolve of the people of the two nations, result in unacceptable damage. Still, wars have got a mind of their own; a dynamics of their own. History stands witness, the extent of destruction and casualties could not dissuade nations from fighting to the end.
We must keep in mind that If Pakistan concedes defeat in spite of being a nuclear power, it will not be just a military defeat—it will mean that the very idea of Pakistan has failed and thus, will sound death knell for Pakistan as a nation. To avoid this ignominious end, they will have to use their nuclear weapons so that, they have the satisfaction of, at least, going down in style and with their self-respect intact.
Pakistan Hangs by Its Nuclear Thread
Going by the host of problems Pakistan is grappling with, it might very well be regarded a failed state or close to being a failed state and you won’t be far from truth. However, there is an additional problem and perhaps the biggest one. You cannot dismiss their problems as “Let them go to hell. Who cares?” Unfortunately, this is a luxury we cannot afford. Howsoever much you may hate them; you cannot wish away the fact that they are a nuclear power. And, you cannot ignore what is happening with a nuclear power.
According to a report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in June 2024, Pakistan has 170 nuclear weapons to India’s 172.
The West’s worst nightmare is a radical government in Pakistan that is not under their control because such a government could, in desperation or by design, unleash its nuclear weapons. If they use them against India, a nuclear power, the consequences could be disastrous. Worse, they might, regarding themselves as champions of Islam in the world, hand a couple of them to rogue Islamic nations or terrorist groups who might use them against, for example, Israel, yet another nuclear power. That could very well conflagrate the Third World War.
Hence, the Western world will not let Pakistan collapse as a nation under any circumstance. They will somehow, whatever it takes, keep Pakistan afloat with a government that is directly or indirectly controlled by them and thus make them ‘behave’, even if they have to spend billions of dollars for that. Pakistan’s being a nuclear power is therefore, in a way, blessing in disguise for us.
