The Pahalgam attack was an avoidable intelligence and security failure

The Pahalgam attack, which claimed 29 lives, including tourists and two foreigners, was a stark reminder of the persistent challenges in Jammu and Kashmir. 

Security and Intelligence Failure

The attack at Baisaran Valley, a scenic meadow near Pahalgam, exposed significant lapses in the security and intelligence apparatus:

Sources indicate that local authorities opened Baisaran meadow to tourists without intelligence approval or adequate security arrangements. This was a critical oversight, as the area, accessible only by foot or horseback and surrounded by dense pine forests, was not heavily protected. The absence of security forces made it an easy target for militants, who exploited the terrain’s natural cover.

Intelligence agencies reportedly missed critical signals. A terrorist based in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir had made suggestive remarks hinting at an imminent attack, but these were not acted upon.

The appointment of Nalin Prabhat as DGP of Jammu and Kashmir, despite his limited experience in the region’s insurgency dynamics, has been criticized as a misstep.

Dismantling of Village Defence Committees (VDCs) and the cessation of special police officer recruitment weakened local human intelligence (HUMINT), which is vital in Kashmir’s complex terrain.

Also Read: What is the price Pakistan is paying for sponsoring terrorism?

The attack coincided with US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to India, suggesting a deliberate attempt to embarrass India on the global stage.

Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir’s speech days earlier, referring to Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein,” was a clear signal of heightened aggression, which Indian intelligence should have anticipated.

The militants, identified as members of The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), used advanced military weapons, wore helmet-mounted cameras, and were likely guided by Pakistan-trained operatives. Their ability to infiltrate from Kishtwar to Kokernag, exploiting the rugged 3,323-km Indo-Pak border, underscores the difficulty of securing such terrain despite India’s robust military presence.

The attack’s scale, described as the deadliest civilian attack since the 2008 Mumbai attacks which demands accountability and a re-evaluation of security protocols.

Terrain Analysis

Surrounded by dense pine forests and alpine meadows, the valley offers natural cover for militants. Baisaran, 7 km from Pahalgam, is particularly vulnerable due to its isolation and lack of road access.

Just 110–120 km away from the LoC, Pahalgam is within reach of infiltration routes through valleys like Kupwara or Baramulla. The rugged terrain, with mountains and forests, complicates surveillance despite drone and CCTV use.

Winding roads, prone to landslides and snow, hinder rapid troop deployment. The militants’ escape to the Pir Panjal range post-attack highlights the difficulty of pursuit in such terrain.

Military Significance

Pahalgam, particularly Chandanwari (15 km away), is a starting point for the Amarnath Yatra, requiring heavy security during the pilgrimage season.

The area’s proximity to sensitive zones like Anantnag and Tral, known for militant activity, necessitates constant vigilance.

As a tourist hub, Pahalgam’s security is critical to Kashmir’s economy. By targeting of tourists the attackers aimed to disrupt the lifeline, as well as shake public confidence and global perceptions.

The terrain’s complexity underscores the need for a layered security framework, including permanent patrols, rotational reconnaissance, and robust HUMINT, as suggested by analysts.

Administrative Control

The transition to central control has led to friction between local police and central agencies, compounded by appointments like DGP Nalin Prabhat, whose expertise lies outside Kashmir’s insurgency context.Policies like granting Scheduled Tribe status to Pahadi Muslims, have alienated the Gujjar community—a key intelligence source and weakened the local support.

The decision to open Baisaran without clearance reflects administrative lapses under the LG’s oversight, highlighting the need for better integration of intelligence and local governance.

National Unity and Response

The attack has galvanized national unity, with protests across India, including in Kashmir, where locals, including Muslims, condemned the violence. Gurudwaras and pony-handlers provided shelter and aid, exemplifying India’s spirit of coexistence. This solidarity counters the attackers’ aim to stoke communal division, as evidenced by their targeting of Hindu tourists and demands for religious identification.

India’s response has been multifaceted:

• Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, closure of the Attari-Wagah border, and visa restrictions for Pakistani nationals.
• A joint cordon and search operation by the Army, CRPF, and J&K Police, with helicopters deployed to track militants.
• The National Investigation Agency (NIA) is probing the attack, with sketches of three suspects released, two identified as Pakistani nationals.

However, the potential for escalation looms, with Pakistan labeling India’s treaty suspension an “act of war.” Analysts warn of a delicate balance between retaliation and avoiding a broader conflict.

Recommendations

• Address troop shortages and training gaps by retaining experienced personnel alongside new recruits.
• Establish permanent patrol units and reconnaissance squads in tourist hotspots like Pahalgam.
• Revive VDCs and special police officer recruitment to bolster HUMINT.
• Integrate local communities like the Gujjars to counter hybrid terrorism.
• Ensure security clearances for tourist areas and appoint leaders with region-specific expertise.
• Promote inter-community solidarity to counter divisive narratives, leveraging the current wave of national support.

Conclusion

The Pahalgam attack was a tragic confluence of intelligence failures, security lapses, and terrain exploitation, exacerbated by systemic issues and administrative missteps. The incident demands a reset in security and intelligence strategies. By addressing these gaps and fostering accountability, India can honor the victims and restore confidence in Kashmir’s stability.

The tragic incident in Pahalgam has deeply wounded the nation. Yet, it has also revealed the strength of India’s unity, as people rise above religious divides to stand together. Muslims, often silent, are now joining protests nationwide, proving that humanity triumphs over hatred. This unity is a powerful blow to those who spread division and exploit issues for votes. It’s a reminder that India’s spirit of coexistence, seen in the mutual respect of Pahalgam’s locals and their support for the Amarnath Yatra, cannot be broken. This solidarity will uproot terrorism and inspire hope, perhaps even reaching citizens across borders, like in Pakistan, to seek true democracy over divisive ideologies.