The global geopolitical landscape has witnessed shifting dynamics in global alliances. The transatlantic rift, exacerbated by the Ukraine conflict, highlights the shifting geopolitical landscape reshaping the future of international relations. The trade wars and the Trump 2.0 tantrums have strengthened the ties between China, Russia, and Iran to a new level of polarity. The convergence of interests among these nations is rooted in their shared opposition to U.S. influence and a desire to reshape the international order, counterbalance U.S. power and promote a multipolar world order. Ironically the US policy has failed to contain China, Russia or Iran beyond self-applauds and being vociferous.
Exercise “Security Belt-2025”
This trilateral Russia, China and Iran partnership has been underscored by the joint military exercise “Security Belt-2025” held in March 2025 near the Iranian port of Chabahar on the coast of the Gulf of Oman to deepen “military trust and pragmatic cooperation”. It symbolises military collaboration among Iran, Russia, and China, emphasizing the role of regional powers in collective security.
China’s growing military presence in the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf further cements its influence. The US policies have failed to contain it. The leverage of tariffs is also more hurting to US than China. Through joint exercises with Russia and Iran, Beijing signals its willingness to challenge Western naval supremacy. The “Security Belt-2025” exercises highlight China’s increasing ability to project power beyond its immediate neighbourhood, securing critical maritime trade routes. Ironically China lacks integral overseas bases for power projections and thus the quest for BRI and CPEC.
The strategic location of the drills near the Gulf of Oman is significant, as the region is a crucial gateway connecting the Indian Ocean and the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than one-quarter of the world’s seaborne traded oil passes. China’s naval presence in these waters ensures its access to key global supply chains.
China’s expanding influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and increased naval presence poses strategic challenges for India. The “Security Belt-2025” exercises in the Gulf of Oman, in proximity to vital sea lanes and India’s western coast, underscore the need for India to bolster its maritime capabilities and surveillance. Additionally, the deepening military cooperation between China and Pakistan, coupled with China’s presence in ports like Gwadar in Pakistan, raises concerns about its strategic intent.
Transatlantic rift
Historically, the United States and the European Union have collaborated closely to counter Russian influence, with NATO serving as the cornerstone of this alliance. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 initially galvanized a unified Western response, reinforcing transatlantic ties. This unity was seen as a revitalization of the alliance after years of cold freeze post the Cold War era and the breakdown of the USSR. However, despite initial cohesion, recent developments have exposed fractures within the alliance. Trump’s foreign policy approach, characterized by a re-evaluation of traditional alliances and a focus on “America First,” has exhibited a more transactional approach to foreign policy, focusing on short-term gains on MAGA over longstanding commitments. This shift has created fissures in the US- Europe relations along with the Trump trade tariff war creating global ripples of dissent. Again the winner has been the silent giant China. In the long term US strategic interest cannot be met without Europe on its side, as much as Europe needs the US for its security and growth.
China: The quiet winner amid global conflicts
China’s manoeuvring underscores the increasing influence of non-Western powers, signalling a shift toward a more multipolar world order. China has adeptly positioned itself as the primary beneficiary of the shifting geopolitical order strengthening its economic, diplomatic and military strength. US has failed to contain it diplomatically, economically or militarily. Beijing’s strategy relies on a combination of economic opportunism, diplomatic neutrality, and military expansion. It is playing its strategic cards well with a long term vision.
China has capitalized on Western sanctions against Russia and Iran by securing discounted oil and gas supplies from both nations. As Europe seeks alternatives to Russian energy, Beijing has stepped in as a crucial buyer, ensuring steady revenue streams for Moscow while reinforcing its energy security.
Iran, under U.S. sanctions, has increasingly turned to China as its top trade partner. In 2021, the two countries signed a 25-year cooperation agreement, deepening their economic ties. The China-Iran-Russia partnership ensures that Beijing remains the key player in shaping energy flows in Eurasia.
Impact on India
The evolving geopolitical landscape has placed India at the heart of a complex and dynamic strategic rhombus of the United States-Russia-India-China (URIC). This configuration is an extension of the inter se relationship between India, Russia, and the United States, with China serving as a crucial common denominator. It encapsulates the intricate balance of power, strategic instability, and the quest for geopolitical opportunism in contemporary times. India seeks to cement its strategic ties with the USA and strengthen its military and economic ties with Russia while managing the fragility of its relationship with China. Iran to India remains a strategic partner with both economic and strategic interests converging. This multi-partnership approach allows India to counterbalance China’s growing assertiveness, create alternatives to the US dependencies and pursue its national interests.
Engaging with Russia and China through organizations like RIC, BRICS, and SCO, while simultaneously strengthening ties with the USA through QUAD, G-20, and JAI, exemplifies India’s nuanced approach. The foundational principles of this strategy include balance of power, ideology, regional security architecture, and deterrence against China’s aggressive revisionism.
As regards Iran, energy cooperation, including potential oil imports and a long-discussed Iran-Oman-India gas pipeline, could enhance India’s energy security. The INSTC corridor and the Chabahar-Zahedan railway have strategic connotations. Strengthening ties aligns with India’s West Asia outreach and Iran’s search for reliable partners, paving the way for deeper engagement. Simultaneously, strengthening ties with the U.S. and European nations serves to counterbalance China’s regional ambitions.
Conclusion
The evolving alliance among China, Russia, and Iran, highlighted by joint military exercises such as “Security Belt-2025,” signifies a concerted effort to challenge the existing international order dominated by Western powers. This realignment, coupled with strains in U.S.-Europe relations, has profound implications for global geopolitics. Trump-onics will need to settle down after an orchestrated tsunami for its own good.
China has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of these shifting dynamics, leveraging conflicts to expand its economic, diplomatic, and military influence. While Russia and Iran face confrontation with the West, China continues to strengthen its position as a global power, maintaining diplomatic flexibility and securing long-term strategic advantages.
India’s role in this strategic balancing is pivotal. By maintaining strategic defence and trade ties with Russia, leveraging partnerships with the USA, and engaging China, India aims to achieve a balance that contributes to strategic stability and global peace. This geopolitical opportunism and strategic balancing underscores India’s quest to navigate its national interests amidst a complex and evolving global landscape.
