The European Union (EU) has recently shifted its attention towards the Indo-Pacific, outlining a strategic vision that aims to strengthen cooperation with regional players. This move was motivated by the EU’s commitment to support a rule-based international system and address China’s assertive behaviour.
The key Elements of the EU strategy include the following:
1. Establishing an Inclusive Framework for Dialogue and Cooperation
The EU’s primary objective is to create a platform on which all relevant stakeholders can engage in open discussions and work together on shared challenges. This framework is based on two fundamental principles.
-Respect for International Law.
-Ensuring Freedom of Navigation.
2. Focusing on Priority Areas for Collaboration
Maximise the impact of its engagement in the Indo-Pacific, the EU has identified several key areas that can contribute effectively because of shared interests with regional partners:
-Climate Change:
-Promoting digitalisation
-Advancing Connectivity.
Potential Areas of Alignment with the Philippines
This evolving EU strategy presents potential areas of convergence with nations, such as the Philippines. Shared interests include the following.
-Sustainable Development
-Maritime Security: As archipelagic states, the EU and Philippines share concerns about maritime security threats such as piracy, illegal fishing, and maritime terrorism. Cooperation in areas such as information sharing, and capacity building can help to address these challenges.
-Upholding International Norms
Also Read: China-Philippines maritime conflict: a threat to Indo-Pacific security – 1
Understanding the Impact of EU-China Relations
The evolving dynamics of EU-China relations also have implications for the Philippines’ geopolitical stance. While economic interdependence continues to shape EU-China ties, differences in values and concerns over China’s actions in the South China Sea have created tension. Key Points to note are:
-The EU’s Response to China’s Assertiveness: In response to Beijing’s increasingly assertive behaviour, the EU has demonstrated a willingness to push back through measures such as sanctions imposed over human rights abuses. This signifies a shift towards a more robust approach to dealing with China.
-Balancing Economic Interests and Security Concerns: For countries like the Philippines that have close economic ties with both the EU and China, managing this delicate balance between economic interests and security considerations is crucial. The divergence between the EU and China regarding certain issues may influence how countries navigate their relationships with these major powers.
The Complex Web of Relationships in the Indo-Pacific
The interaction among these external actors – USA, the EU, China, and the Philippines – adds another layer of complexity to the already intricate geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific region. As countries pursue their respective interests and navigate competing dynamics, the need for constructive dialogue and cooperation has become increasingly important for ensuring peace, stability, and sustainable development in the region.
Examining China-Philippines Relations
China and the Philippines, which are geographically close neighbours, share a complex relationship marked by economic interdependence and territorial disputes.
Centuries of trade and cultural exchange have intertwined China and the Philippines. However, the 20th century brought about new complexities. With its rich fishing grounds and potential natural resources, the South China Sea has emerged as a major point of contention.
Despite territorial disputes, China is the largest trading partner of the Philippines. Significant trade flows and Chinese investments are crucial to the Philippine economy. This economic interdependence creates a complex situation in which the Philippines seeks to balance its security concerns with economic ties to China.
The relationship between the two nations has fluctuated in recent years. The presidency of Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022) prioritized economic ties with China, downplaying the South China Sea dispute. However, the current president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., has shown willingness to reassert Philippine claims while maintaining open communication channels with China.
Challenges and Considerations
Reconciling the South China Sea dispute remains a major challenge. Both sides need to find ways to manage tensions peacefully and explore avenues for cooperation, such as joint exploration and resource development.
The Philippines faces the challenge of balancing its economic ties with China and its security alliance with the US. Maintaining strategic autonomy that upholds national interests is crucial.
– Public opinion in the Philippines holds a negative view of China due to South China Sea issues. Addressing these concerns and fostering trust-building measures is important.
Also Read: China-Philippines maritime conflict: a threat to Indo-Pacific security – 2
Role of U.S. in The Conflict
While not directly involved in territorial disputes, the U.S. has been a prominent figure in this conflict due to its strategic interest in ensuring freedom of navigation through these crucial waters.
To challenge China’s territorial claims, the U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs). These operations involved deploying warships within twelve nautical miles of contested territories claimed by China to demonstrate its non-recognition of Chinese sovereignty over those areas.
Additionally, the U.S. provides military aid to countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam as a counter to Chinese aggression. The Philippine Mutual Defence Treaty could potentially be invoked in response to an armed attack on Philippine forces, public vessels, or aircraft in the South China Sea.
By standing up against China’s unilateral alterations of the status quo in these contested waters, the U.S. aims to deter any further escalation of conflict and uphold international maritime laws.
Role of ASEAN
ASEAN holds significant weight in regional security because of the following reasons:
- Collective Diplomacy: ASEAN members collectively negotiate with larger powers such as China on issues such as maritime security and trade.
- Conflict Mediation: The organisation works towards peaceful resolutions to disputes among its members and with external parties.
- Economic Integration: ASEAN promotes economic growth and stability through regional cooperation which can counterbalance external pressures.
China’s interactions with ASEAN are complex. While it seeks economic cooperation through forums such as BRI projects within ASEAN countries, their conflicting interests in territorial disputes such as those in the South China Sea pose challenges to this relationship. Nonetheless, ASEAN remains pivotal to maintaining a balance in regional power dynamics.
The intricate interplay between these key players underscores the multifaceted nature of the China-Philippines maritime conflict. With each actor bringing distinct motivations and resources to bear on this issue, understanding their roles provides insight into the potential outcomes of regional security in the Indo-Pacific region.
Sino-Indian Border Issue
The Sino-Indian border issue throws another variable into a mix of regional tension. These border disputes resonate throughout the wider Indo-Pacific region, potentially altering alliances and security calculations.
Impact on Regional Alliances: With India being an integral part of the Quad, border disputes can affect cooperative efforts aimed at countering China’s assertiveness.
Shift in Military Focus: Heightened tensions along the Sino-Indian border could divert Chinese military resources and attention away from maritime domains, temporarily easing the pressure on Southeast Asian claimants.
Recent naval exercises in the South China and Yellow Sea also deserve a mention- on 14 September 2023, the USS America, an amphibious assault ship, also called a lightning carrier, took part in a large-scale naval exercise in Yellow Sea along with South Korea and Canada. The Yellow Sea is of vital importance to Beijing’s strategic concerns as it is in proximity to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei hinterland, and it is also the strategic front of the Shandong and Liaodong peninsula. In October 1994, the USS Kitty Hawk was confronted by a Chinese Nuclear submarine in the same area and had led to a crisis.
It is undrestood that this time, a Chinese Navy’s Type 055 destroyer, Wuxi, returned via the Tsushima Strait to the East China Sea, which prompted the USS America to exit the yellow sea, after just 5 hours of the exercise. In addition, China also announced its intention to carry out exercises in the Bohai and Yellow Sea. China thereafter carried out a large-scale exercise with Carrier Shandong and 20 other ships, well beyond the first island chain in the Philippines sea, between Taiwan and Guam. These exercises imply that China is also preparing to operate far away from its shores and close to its perceived adversary.
USA, Japan, Australia, and The Philippines have again carried out joint naval exercises in the South China Sea on the 7th of April 2024, in response, China also carried out Combat Patrols in the area.
Conclusion
The China-Philippines maritime conflict has brought the precarious balance of power in the South China Sea to the forefront. As tensions escalate, the potential for regional security crisis poses serious challenges to East Asia’s stability.
This brief analysis suggests that the regional stability of the South China Sea and East China Sea is at risk, with the conflict escalating beyond regional borders and involving international powers, such as the United States. The repercussions of this dispute may resonate beyond territorial claims and fishing rights, potentially disrupting trade routes and increasing military tension.
Stakeholders need to understand that diplomatic resolution is crucial for preventing further escalation. Ignoring or bypassing international maritime laws and arbitration rulings exacerbates mutual distrust and hostility.
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