The Rohingya crisis occupies a central place in discussions of contemporary ethnopolitical conflict, international law, and regional stability in Southeast Asia. Recent proceedings at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) — where Myanmar has rejected allegations that its 2017 campaign constituted genocide

— have underscored the ongoing international scrutiny of Myanmar’s treatment of this Muslim minority. This analysis assesses the origins, demographic context, drivers of persecution, and current military/civil conflict dynamics affecting the Rohingya in Myanmar. It concludes with the latest population estimates and a strategic perspective on the crisis’s future trajectory.

Rohingya: Identity and Geography

The Rohingya are a predominantly Muslim ethnoreligious minority primarily residing in Rakhine State, a coastal region in western Myanmar bordering Bangladesh. While the community’s exact historical origins are contested, most academic and humanitarian analyses place Rohingya settlement in northern Rakhine over several centuries, with deeper migratory linkages emerging during British colonial rule. Their presence is concentrated in northwestern Rakhine, particularly the Maungdaw, Buthidaung, and Rathedaung townships, with smaller communities around Sittwe and other areas.

Historical Genesis of the Rohingya Crisis Colonial and Post-Independence Developments

The Rohingya issue is rooted in Myanmar’s transition from colonial administration to post-independence nation-state formation. British imperial policies blurred ethnic boundaries, and subsequent Burmese nationalism framed Rohingya as “outsiders” or “illegal Bengali migrants,” a label later codified in law. The 1982 Citizenship Law excluded Rohingya from the list of Myanmar’s official ethnic nationalities, effectively rendering them stateless and denying them full citizenship rights.

Periodic Waves of Displacement

Prior to 2017, Rohingya have faced multiple waves of state- sponsored expulsions:

• 1978 (“Operation Dragon King”) forced hundreds of thousands into Bangladesh.
• 1991–92 military campaigns again drove large numbers across the border. These events entrenched patterns of marginalisation and mass displacement.

The 2017 Crackdown and Genocide Accusations

In August 2017, attacks by the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) on security posts triggered a disproportionate response by the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw), including mass

killings, rape, and systematic destruction of Rohingya villages. The ensuing offensives displaced over 700,000 Rohingya to Bangladesh, prompting international condemnation and calls for accountability under the Genocide Convention.

ICJ Case

In 2019, Gambia filed a case at the ICJ alleging genocide. Myanmar’s legal team has challenged these claims as “unsubstantiated,” framing the operations as counter-terrorism. The ICJ hearings in early 2026 are reviewing evidence on intent, conduct, and state policy.

Drivers of Persecution

Structural Statelessness and Discrimination

The Rohingya’s stateless status is central to their vulnerability. Exclusion from citizenship has led to restricted freedom of movement, limited economic opportunity, and systemic discrimination in education, healthcare, and civil participation

— conditions described by Human Rights Watch and other observers as constituting apartheid-like segregation.

Security Framing and Militarisation

The Tatmadaw has frequently justified its actions as responses to insurgent threats, including counter-insurgency against ARSA. Critics argue these narratives have been leveraged to rationalise broader suppression of an ethnic community rather than targeted militancy.

Population of Rohingya in Myanmar (2025/26)

Accurate and up-to-date estimates are essential for understanding the scale of the crisis and planning humanitarian and policy responses.

Current Estimates

According to recent data from the UNHCR regional trends (2023–24), there are approximately 620,000–633,000 Rohingya remaining in Myanmar, primarily in northern Rakhine State. This figure has remained relatively stable since the major post- 2017 exodus, with many Rohingya either internally displaced or confined to restrictive zones within Rakhine.

Other reports from Human Rights Watch indicate around 630,000 Rohingya remain in Rakhine State, with a significant portion subject to severe restrictions, including open-air detention camps.

Estimates vary slightly by source and methodology, but the best current figure places the Rohingya population inside Myanmar at approximately 630,000 as of late 2024/early 2025. This is against a broader Rohingya population across the region — including refugees in Bangladesh and countries such as Malaysia, Pakistan, and India — estimated at around 1.8 million.

Myanmar’s Conflict Dynamics and Territorial Control Military Junta Control

Since the February 2021 coup, Myanmar’s military — known as the State Administration Council (SAC) — has seen its territorial control shrink amid widespread insurgent advances. Only about 21 per cent of national territory remains under direct military control, with substantial areas contested or held by ethnic armed organisations and militias.

Arakan Army (AA) Dominance in Rakhine

In Rakhine State — the traditional homeland of the Rohingya — the Arakan Army (AA) has expanded its influence, controlling

much of the state and complicating the security environment. The AA’s governance, while opposed to the junta, has not fully protected Rohingya interests; reports describe continued restrictions and violence affecting Rohingya settlements.

Fragmented Insurgent Presence

Beyond Rakhine, multiple armed groups — including ethnic Karen, Chin, Kachin, and Shan insurgents — control significant swathes of territory, contributing to a decentralised conflict context in which the central state’s monopoly on violence is eroded.

Strategic and Humanitarian Implications Refugee Crisis and Displacement

The majority of Rohingya living outside Myanmar are in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar and surrounding settlements, often in precarious conditions with sustained humanitarian needs. Ongoing displacement inside Myanmar — through conflict between the junta and rebel forces — continues to erode Rohingya safety and rights.

Security Risks and Extremism

Persistently marginalised communities are at risk of exploitation by extremist elements, and ongoing hostilities raise the spectre of further destabilisation in Rakhine and beyond, with potential spillover effects for neighbouring states, including India, Bangladesh, and Thailand.

Conclusion

The Rohingya crisis remains a pivotal study in how ethnonationalist exclusion, statelessness, and militarised state responses can generate protracted conflict and displacement. With approximately 630,000 Rohingya still in Myanmar, predominantly in Rakhine State, and many more in exile, the community’s future hinges on structural reforms that address citizenship, security guarantees, and international engagement. The ICJ proceedings, while symbolically significant, must be paired with ground-level political solutions to chart a durable path toward peace and rights recognition. Comprehensive policy responses will require sustained regional diplomacy, robust humanitarian support, and an unwavering commitment to international legal norms.