It may appear too premature to talk about a post-electoral scenario in Pakistan when the debate over the holding of elections and dates for say the Punjab Assembly elections have yet to be decided. The Supreme Court’s May 14 deadline has passed and may be forgotten, as a chastened Chief Justice Atta Bandial is unlikely to make a hasty judgement on vote dates, especially after the Election Commission of Pakistan has questioned the SC’s power over poll dates. However, the National Assembly’s mandate ends on August 16, and elections must be held by mid-October unless another political crisis arises. Elections for both the regional and national assemblies will take place at the same time.
New players such as the Jahangir Khan Tareen (JKT) faction and the acquisition of the PTI dissidents by other parties may dictate the evolving situation. Yet, in all confidence, Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah predicts three splinter groups’ emergence in the future. He seems to be calm on Jahangir Tareen’s issue and expects that shouldn’t be a threat to Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in Punjab, and is adamantly boastful of their vote bank. His confidence comes from the fact that Imran Khan’s Tehreek Insaaf (PTI) has been effectively marginalised after the May 9 riots including charges faced due to attacks on key military installations, and anticipating that the PML N will have an advantage. The repeat instability in Pakistan will persist if the drama unfolds in the manner that The PTI gets divided into two or three parts. One part will go into the PPP, the second to JKT and the third will remain in the PTI. This will break the voters in Punjab with two traditional parties, PML-N and PPP, the latter attracting some defectors from south Punjab, the rump PTI and the JKT faction apart from other parties such as the PML Q.
Since his ouster from power in April last year, PTI Vice Chairman Shah Mahmood Qureshi has faced a barrage of charges ranging from corruption to terrorism. He was released from the Adiala jail on June 06 on orders of the Lahore High Court (LHC) after almost a month in what he claims solitary confinement. Imran Khan is said to have nominated Qureshi to lead the party in case of his disqualification by a court, which Sanaullah seconds fundamentally. The game here is that the timing of Qureshi’s release indicates that this is an attempt by the military to allow the PTI to float the party without Imran Khan commonly known as the Minus One formula, that is PTI Minus Mr Imran Khan. In premise, the military has threatened Mr Khan with prosecution under the Amy Act, which, among other things, will very likely disqualify him from politics and may even land him in jail, even if he receives some reprieve from the Supreme Court later. This looks like Qureshi being in the “so-called” solitary confinement was a handshake move with the military to formally settle the Imran Khan factor from the power equation. Asad Umar and Asad Qaiser of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf are anticipated to stay loyal to Mr Imran Khan and may form part of the backbone of the Party, internally influencing Khan’s involvement in the Qureshi-led party.
Three years whilst PTI was in power, the economy in Pakistan has struggled and there have been allegations of corruption and mismanagement. Voters are extremely unhappy with the PTI government’s performance. PTI’s failure in democratic governance will result in many key factors affecting the elections. With the economy in the doldrums, inflation and unemployment on the rise, and the rupee losing its value against the dollar; the economy continues to struggle, and is hurting PTI’s chances of re-election. Looking at the best amongst the worst, the popularity of the PML-N and the PPP has grown with a strong base of support in Punjab and Sindh, respectively. So does it look like it will be a PPP versus PML-N contest?
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The economy is in a state of flux, with inflation and unemployment on the rise. The party has been plagued by allegations of corruption and mismanagement. Analysts are predicting that the PTI will face an uphill battle in the elections. The PML-N and the PPP are both hoping to capitalize on the PTI’s weaknesses. The PML-N is led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who is popular in Punjab, the country’s most populous province. The PPP is led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The PPP is popular in Sindh, the country’s second most populous province. Right now it’s a simple calculation in the view, i.e. the party that succeeds in mobilising its base, Wins. However, if a factional alliance arises, whether the PML-N or the PPP has an edge with the evergreen Zardari manoeuvring his way to the top with the likes of JKT remains to be seen. So, will one-time President Asif Ali Zardari now ascend to power as Prime Minister of Pakistan?
The upcoming Pakistani democratic elections in 2023 are expected to be closely contested. The incumbent Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government will face challenges from the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). The outcome of the elections will depend on several factors as discussed above, however, the main factor that can influence the result drastically will be the will, the role, and the support of the military, as usual.
