Header Ad
HomeNEWSInternational NewsHistory repeats in Russia – Wagner tried the Bolshevik revolution

History repeats in Russia – Wagner tried the Bolshevik revolution

- Advertisement -

In the tumultuous year of 1917, a seismic shift in the geopolitical landscape unfolded as a mutiny and subsequent revolution shattered the very foundations of the Tsar’s empire in Russia. This cataclysmic event was not a solitary endeavour but the culmination of a complex tapestry woven by various factions, with revolutionary socialist groups like the Bolsheviks, under the indomitable leadership of Vladimir Lenin, assuming a prominent role. It was a conflagration ignited by the discontent of the disenfranchised masses—workers, peasants, and soldiers alike—wearied by the burdens of dire socio-economic conditions, unrelenting warfare, and a glaring absence of political representation.

The reverberations of this mutiny and uprising were nothing short of seismic, resulting in the abdication of Tsar Nicholas II and the dramatic collapse of the once-mighty Russian Empire. However, the aftermath was far from tranquillity, as a turbulent era of political instability and fierce power struggles engulfed the nation. Amidst the tumult, the Bolsheviks emerged as the victors, unfurling the banner of communism and cementing their grip on power, birthing the Soviet Union. The ramifications of this revolution echoed across the globe, leaving an indelible mark on the trajectory of 20th-century history. It reshaped alliances, ignited ideological conflicts, and forever transformed the geopolitical landscape.

Drawing parallels with the historic events of 1917, a comparable stormy aftermath unfolded when Yevgeny Prigozhin endeavoured to emulate the unconquerable Vladimir Lenin on the grand national stage. Dubbed by Western news agencies as the intriguing “Wagner’s mutiny,” this saga encapsulated a series of rowdy events. However, similar to a fleeting disturbance in a confined space, it erupted on the 24th of June 2023, only to swiftly dissipate by the 25th—a laughable one-day affair that hardly merited the label of a Russian Civil War, however, the aftermath of which will echo similarly as Lenin’s revolt for ages to come.

History repeats in Russia – Wagner tried the Bolshevik revolution
Pic: Brookings Institution 

These perplexing events left observers puzzled, submerged in a deluge of fanciful tales masquerading as veritable truths. Taking a closer look at the unfolding events through a discerning lens, it becomes clear that the swirling rumours amidst the chaos fail to hold water. The resounding answer to the question of whether Putin orchestrated the perplexing “mutiny” is a definitive “No.” On the contrary, these occurrences have dealt a severe blow to his already tarnished reputation. This spectacle rivals the most captivating tales from the annals of history, as Putin’s confidant (Prigozhin) embarked on a dramatic flight from Moscow to Valdai, capturing the collective imagination of the masses.

- Advertisement -

Amidst the rising tensions, the resolution was arrived over phone conversations between Putin and Prigozhin, delicately manoeuvred by Belarus’ Lukashenko. Delving deeper into the recent commotion reveals that the Russian army itself suffered losses—a staggering six helicopters and one aircraft—as they sought to suppress the advancing Wagner forces or impede their progress. The reality, it seems, has dealt a harsh blow to the fantastical narrative of invincibility so frequently propagated on our television screens. As the dust settled, the Russian citizens and the world like got to witness the glimpse behind the facade.

Pic: Nzherald.co.nz

The Wagnerites emerged as a distinct group, far removed from mere dissatisfied citizens or critics of Putin’s war. They embody a unique combination of calculated realism, representing the very essence of terrorism and war crimes. To them, the war is not just a battlefront but a potent instrument for amassing political power—a twisted path where their ambitions grew brighter the longer the conflict endures. Their discontent stems from two sources: the perceived incompetence of the Russian Army High Command, which fuels their frustration, and their insatiable personal ambitions that know no bounds.

Pic: pravda.com.va

The observers can’t be persuaded by rumours of a “civil war,” as the country has yet to reach the feverish intensity of revolution. Despite their troubles, the masses have not been driven to the edge of a complete collapse, and the military’s unflinching grip remains intact as yet. Despite his reputation as the most well-equipped warlord in the nation, Prigozhin’s ambitions had little chance of success, even with an army of 25,000 men—though it is likely that just a quarter, about 5,000 to 10,000, could genuinely constitute a danger. Nonetheless, the rebellion planned by Prigozhin succeeded in exposing Russia’s weaknesses, showing the turbulence that occurs when such upheaval occurs. The nation’s flaws were exposed for the world to see, a monument to the volatile undercurrents that lurk under the surface.

A comprehensive understanding of the unfolding complexities surrounding Putin’s “peace deal” requires a strategic and multidimensional perspective. Beyond the surface-level interpretation lies a meticulously orchestrated performance by Prigozhin himself, a calculated manoeuvre to position him as a potential alternative to Putin, a shadowy figure lurking within the political landscape, patiently awaiting his moment. Beneath the facade, the true motives come to light—a delicate balance between Putin’s unwavering pursuit of power within Russia and Prigozhin’s rapid ascent to become the fifth most trusted leader in a mere six months. Fully cognizant of the high stakes and the long-term strategy at play, Prigozhin meticulously choreographed his actions, sparing Russian bloodshed only in the name of self-defence. His exit strategy was premeditated, a cunning move designed to further enhance his value within the grand scheme of things.

- Advertisement -

The ramifications of Prigozhin’s orchestrated “revolt” extend far beyond Russian borders. COBRA calls reverberated, sparking concerns about the potential loss of control over nuclear weapons, as the Austrian chancellor reignited dormant fears. Adding yet another layer of intrigue, the temporary suspension of U.S. sanctions against Prigozhin’s gold mining ventures heightened the mysterious nature of this ploy. Amidst the smoke and mirrors, a complex dance of power and influence unfolds, leaving us questioning the true motivations and intricate interplay of forces in the ever-shifting landscape of Russian politics.

Also Read: Will Ukraine last till the game is over?

The global geopolitical community holds its breath, captivated by the covert machinations of the elusive “state traitor” and the web of intrigue surrounding him. Putin’s own spokesperson has alleged assurances of a politically advantageous position for Prigozhin within the borders of Belarus. But that is not all—his officers, faithful comrades-in-arms, have been promised protection, shielded from the clutches of persecution. They are presented with a world of possibilities, where they can choose to return to the distant corners of Africa, where their iron grip controls valuable gold and diamond mines in select countries. Alternatively, an invitation awaits them to join the formidable ranks of the Russian Army, opening doors to unimaginable power and influence. Whispers persist that even the mighty figures of Shoigu and Gerasimov may be replaced, heralding a seismic shift in the corridors of power. Against this backdrop,  amidst an atmosphere of anticipation, the Wagner militia stands tall, basking in their newfound glory, while the cheers of freshly recruited soldiers reverberate through the city of Rostov-on-Don. The stage is set, the players are poised, and the air crackles with electric anticipation as the wheels of fate continue to turn in this mesmerizing theatre of power.

- Advertisement -
Vipul Tamhane
Vipul Tamhane
Vipul Tamhane is an Anti-Money Laundering and Combating Terrorist Financing (AML/CFT) specialist with expertise in international business, and Commercial Law. He is a visiting faculty at Pune University's Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, where he teaches Counter Terrorism to Masters and Postgraduate Diploma students. He is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Diplomacy Direct, an upcoming national-interest think tank dealing with counter-terrorism, national security, geopolitics, and international diplomacy.


Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

- Advertisment -

Most Popular