North Korea a tiny nation boasting a population of just 2.62 crore, has yet again given a huge inferiority complex to most of the much older, bigger, and richer nations of the world with a roaring demonstration of its technological prowess. On October 31, it successfully tested its latest ICBM (Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile) Hwasong-19.
Most remarkably, since North Korea cannot risk its missile falling into enemy territory, the missile was fired almost vertically. It flew only 1,001.2 km downrange splashing down about 300 km west of Japan’s Okushiri Island, but went a record over 7,000 km up in the space. The missile literally pierced the sky, so to say. This means, had it been fired at an angle to give maximum horizontal range, it would have gone nearly 15,000 km, enabling it to strike easily anywhere in the US mainland.
The Hwasong-19 ICBM
North Korean supremo Kim Jong Un ordered the missile test and was present at the launch site, calling the launch ‘an appropriate military action’ to demonstrate North Korea’s resolve to respond to its enemies’ moves that have threatened the nation’s safety.
North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency released video and photographs of the Hwasong-19 missile soaring high into space. Hwasong in Koran literally means Mars. The missile itself is estimated to be about 28 meters long. Russia’s RS-28 Sarmat is, in comparison, about 35 meters long. It was fired from an 11-axle transporter erector launcher (TEL), about 30 meters long, apparently bigger than any of the world’s existing missile launch vehicles.
From the increase in the length and diameter of the missile’s fuselage and enhanced maximum altitude over its predecessor Hwasong-18, it is clear that it is a new missile altogether and not a modified or refurbished Hwasong-18. Now, which country of the world has produced a new ICBM after fielding an ICBM just a year ago?
Also Read: Why does Kim Jong Un prefer to travel in armoured trains?
The Hwasong-18, if you recall, has been in service since 2023 only. It was first unveiled at the February 8, 2023 parade commemorating the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People’s Army, and its maiden flight took place on April 13, 2023. It was carried on a 9-axle Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) vehicle. It is a three-stage solid-fuelled ICBM. In its test flight, it flew for 74.8 minutes and attained a height (apogee) of 6648 km. It has, so far, done three test flights.
The Hwasong-19 flew for a record 86 minutes and reached an apogee of over 7,687.5 km. According to Euronews, monitoring systems of the USA, South Korea and Japan have all confirmed the successful flight and it is not the type of unsubstantiated claim that several other nations are wont to making. This was stated by South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesperson Lee Sung Joon and the Japanese Defence Minister Gen. Nakatani. Lee said that South Korea and the US plan ‘sufficient’ bilateral military exercises and trilateral ones involving Japan in response to North Korean threats.
The Korean TEL itself is an extremely impressive feat of mechanical engineering. Those who are saying that the Hwasong-19 is made with Russian help do not know that hitherto the world’s greatest TEL was the Russian MZKT-79221 TEL. It was designed to carry Russia’s Topol-M ICBM’s (NATO nomenclature SS-27 Sickle B) independent launching unit, related systems and special equipment, its transportation and handling unit and to transport these items by I-IV class roads. The MZKT-79221 TEL, manufactured by Russian company Volat, is an 8-axle vehicle, whereas the North Korean TEL is an 11-axle vehicle. If they were to take Russian help in making the ICBM, they could have taken their help in making the TEL also.
What does the test mean?
Images in the Japanese media of apparent re-entering objects left no doubt that the flight was successful. Agreed, one test alone does not tell anything about its guidance systems, accuracy and the survivability of the re-entry vehicles containing the warheads, the significance of the test must not be underestimated.
We may disregard Kim’s claim of ‘the world’s strongest strategic missile’ but we must keep in mind that sycophantic media of other nations is known to have gone to town boasting of their capabilities with their very first tests even as they never dare to get any launch result verified by other nations.
The James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies (CNS) North Korea Missile Test Database notes that since 1984, North Korea has conducted 264 tests, with the vast majority of them having been conducted in the last 10 years. Kim Jong Un had, incidentally assumed office 12 years ago. The highest number of launches (40) occurred in 2022. Three missiles reached an altitude of between 2,000 and 4,000 km; two reached between 4,000, and 6,000 km, and six reached more than 6,000 km. Just to give you an idea of what these heights mean, you may note that the International Space Station (ISS) orbits just over 400 km above the Earth. Polar orbiting weather satellites circle the Earth at a typical altitude of 850 km. Spy satellites, that is, electronic intelligence (ELINT), signal intelligence (SIGINT) and radar intelligence (RADINT) satellites and military communications satellites operate typically between 960 km and 1920 km altitude.
Oh, the complex it gave to others
As it was to be expected, the test gave such an inferiority complex to others that, according to The Korea Times, a South Korean lawmaker went on to claim that Russia might have helped in the name of ‘space technology cooperation’. He also said that the test took place without a new engine test as North Korea had been disclosing its test of new engines for missiles in the past. The question is so what? Imagine, the comment coming from a technically unqualified lawmaker. Poor fellow did not understand that merely bulking up the size of the missile’s fuel compartment with an older engine (of say, the Hwasong-18) would not make it a new missile nor enable it to fly farther and higher. This is so utterly stupid.
Another comment by Lee Sangmin from South Korea’s Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, is equally stupid. He says that the huge size of the missile’s transporter erector launcher comes at the cost of its mobility. No knowledgeable person in the world ever commented so in respect of the Russian road-mobile launchers, which are nearly as big. This is so ridiculous. Road mobile launchers are not expected to dodge any attack on them from the air.
A paper for the USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies at the Air University calls road-mobile ICBMs ‘Nuclear Hell on Wheels’. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory also agrees that road-mobile ICBM force offers more flexible strike options than silo-based ICBMs, faster deployment than SSBNs (Ballistic Missile Submarines), and greater survivability than bombers, thereby reinforcing the second-strike capability essential for effective modern deterrence.
What makes the US nervous?
The USA is obviously jittery because solid-fuel ICBMs can be launched quickly and do not need the long fuelling time and preparation procedures of the liquid-fuel ICBMs.
Because their last year’s ICBM HS-18 can any way reach targets throughout the US, I agree with Vann H. Van Diepen’s comments in ‘Military Affairs’ that the most likely reason for developing another solid-fuel ICBM with more boost and lift capability than the existing HS-18 is to carry a heavier MIRV payload to similar ranges.
MIRV or Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicles carry several warheads on one ‘bus’ and can launch them at previously programmed different targets. This makes it extremely difficult to intercept them by ABM (anti-ballistic missiles) systems.
Deployment of MIRVs on the HS-19 (and probably the larger, liquid-fuel HS-17), in combination with single-warhead versions and the HS-18 missiles, will greatly boost the number of deployed North Korean warheads for a given number of missiles and launchers. And, just in case, the USA decides to strike North Korea in a pre-emptive nuclear strike, it will also increase the number of targets that their surviving missile force can retaliate against after absorbing a first strike. The possible MIRV capable ICBM is the greatest worry of the USA.
A multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV)-associated probable post-boost vehicle (PBV) was shown in stage-separation photos from the launch released by North Korea. Some more successful flight tests will be needed before considering the HS-19 ready for deployment. But a MIRV payload would require many more several successful tests.
North Korean masterstroke in Ukraine
Incidentally, the launch came as the USA noted that North Korean troops in Russian uniforms were likely to augment Russian forces and join the Ukraine war.
Western analysts have been wondering what North Korea stands to get by making its 11,000 or so troops fight in the Ukraine War. No, they are not really doing it for any technological assistance in return. Russia is not so hard-pressed for manpower that they would need ‘imported soldiers’ without whom they would lose the war, and North Korea does not have to bleed and fight a war for Russia in order to get some technological assistance. Self-styled experts finding such a reason don’t know a thing.
As I had pointed out in an earlier article, armies, howsoever well-equipped with imported weapons, remain paper tigers without combat experience. Given rough parity in leadership, strategy and tactics, training, numbers and technological sophistication of weapon systems of rival nations, the outcome of a war depends mainly on combat experience.
A military force can hope to remain operationally ‘ready’ by training and participation in exercises. BUT, none of these can ever substitute for the real losses of men and equipment; blood; grime; the real fear of getting killed or maimed; stress of repair and replenishment; chaos and uncertainties; the rough and tumble; and the general misery and horror that accompanies real wars where no quarters are asked and no quarters are given. The best training for war happens to be war itself.
Nations like China that do not delude themselves, are deeply concerned about their lack of combat experience and are apprehensive of becoming a ‘Paper Tiger’. In 2018, the Chinese military’s official newspaper, the PLA Daily, criticized what it described as “peace disease”. Chinese Lt. Gen. He Lei had said that his biggest regret before retiring was that he never fought a war!
Fighting in Ukraine is a golden opportunity for North Korea. They cannot fight a war of their own without risking uncontrollable escalation. Their friend China is not fighting any war at the moment. It is only Russia, which is fighting. Hence, there cannot be anything better than acquiring combat experience in Ukraine. It is a strategic masterstroke of Putin and Kim.
Face the truth
Let us admit it. The missile test was indeed phenomenally impressive. To achieve that is admirable by any standard. North Korea has just about 300 universities. Those nations of the world that do not tire of flaunting their glorious ancient, medieval or modern civilization, thousands of universities and colleges, and a massive pool of technically qualified manpower, and above all their democratic credentials, have yet to demonstrate such a stupendous feat. They must take a leaf out of North Korea’s book.
