The ongoing political ‘drama’ between Iran and Israel is keeping the world on the tenterhooks. No country wants it to escalate to a full-blown war. As this drama is unfolding and the world is getting engrossed into it, possibly Israel could be taking advantage of the situation to push further their Gaza offensive. On the other hand, the demonstration of the military intent by both Iran and Israel, is giving an indication of how much confidence they have in each other’s Air Defence and Missile defence capabilities. Possibly, this is the first time in the history weapons are getting fired towards the targets, with an assumption that they would be intercepted before reaching the targets!
It all started on 01 April 2024, when Israel did an air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria During this attack, seven officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two senior commanders were killed. It was announced by Iran that they would take revenge for this attack. On 13 April 2024, the IRGC with assistance from other fighting groups supported by them for decades like the Lebanese group Hezbollah, and the Yemeni Houthis mounted an attack on Israel. The attack involved use of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles. Approximately, 170 drones, 30 cruise and 120 ballistic missiles were fired towards Israel and the Golan Heights region. This operation was codenamed by Iran as Operation True Promise.
Iran had given enough indications about the possibility of such an attack. Several states in the region had closed their airspace prior to the attack. Apart from the US, states like Britain, France and Jordan had tasked their air forces to assist Israel. Naval assets were put in use for radar coverage. Flying objects were intercepted in the air. Israel’s air defence network played a major role towards incepting these drones and missiles before they reach the target and 99% of the threat was effectively neutralised. Post attack damage assessment indicated that nine Iranian missiles had struck two Israeli air bases. No major damage was caused. On 19 April 2024, Israeli forces hit back with a retaliatory strike. It was a small calibrated attack essentially for the messaging purposes. Possibly, it was a single missile attack (a two-staged air launched Blue Sparrow missile) on the Isfahan region. This is the region, which hosts a nuclear facility. Iran claims that their air defence had effectively addressed the threat. With this both the states have shattered a taboo of directly attaching inside each other’s territory. It appears that both the states are not keen for an all-out war.
It appears they are taking too much of a risk while engaging in this game of massage giving and one-upmanship. The attack launched by Iran was a major attack. Maybe, Iran was sure that such an attack would not cause much damage since Israel would be able to thwart the threat with their potent air and missile defence system. At the same time, it was more of a saturation attack to test the limits of Israeli early-warning and missile defence systems. This attack also helped Iran to understand if the western powers are ready to invest themselves militarily in the region or not. Now, there is a clarity that the US and its allies are ready to offer direct military support to Israel unlike the case of Ukraine.
The attack launched by Iran was unique in nature and so was the response from Israel. Majority of attacks originated from Iranian territory. While Hezbollah based in Lebanon was responsible for firing two barrages of rockets on an Israeli military base in Golan Heights. In addition, drone attacks were launched from Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
Also Read: Iran, the ‘Axis of Evil’, needs to be brought down to its knees
Israel has well-established multi-layered air defence capabilities, which played a major role towards ensuring that none of the missiles reach the designated targets. They have three important missile defence systems namely: the Iron Dome, Devid’s Sling and Arrow-2 and 3. The most famous amongst them, is the Iron Dome, which helps intercept short-range threats. For all these years, the missile attacks on Israel were mounted either by Hamas or Hezbollah and obviously, they were coming from a very close vicinity. For more than one decade, this system has done a wonderful job with a success rate of almost 99%. David’s Sling is a system, which is meant for intercepting short to medium, and medium to long range missiles, while the Arrow system intercepts medium to long range, and long-range missiles.
The 13 April attack could be viewed as the largest drone strike in history. However, Israel was successful even to neutralise such a saturation raid. It may take some time for the world to understand how this was exactly achieved. But, one question arises over here that, ‘was Iran so sure that even a drone attack of this nature could get intercepted’? It looks to be too much of a risk taken by Iran. Suppose, there would have been a failure towards neutralising this threat, then definitely a large destruction on Israeli soil could have led to a massive military response from them. There is also a (very thin) possibility that Iran is interested in widening the conflict, knowing fully well that Israel’s military agencies are fully occupied towards fighting in Gaza.
The so-called massage giving by Israel was also a very risky proposal since they had chosen the target in the area where some nuclear facilities are present. Any mishap could have led to disaster consequences. All in all, it appears that both Iran and Israel are unnecessarily taking calculated risks and any mishap could lead to a full-scale war. It is important for the powers like the US to play a mediatory role and de-escalate tensions in the region.
