India-US relations may seem to be on pretty solid ground today but that was not the case in history. During the cold war period, India-US relations were overshadowed by the two major irritants, the Indo-Soviet friendship and the US-Pak alliance. In the 1950s India and the US were on the opposite sides of the fence. During the 1962 war with China, India sought American military aid. Subsequently in the 1970s, India and the Soviet Union came closer to each other and allied to constrain China from intervening in the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war. Later, in the mid-1980s the US strategy was to wean India away from the Soviet Union. In the 1990s, the Soviet Union got disintegrated and the cold war between the two nations ended. US-Pak relations also nosedived, because of the latter’s clandestine nuclear programme.
During President Bush period from 2001 to 2009, the India-US relations started improving. India was viewed as the largest democracy and emerging economic power, despite its numerous domestic problems. It was also seen as a reliable and potential partner in Asia if US relations sour with China. The relations continued to grow during President Barrack Obama time from 2009 to 2017.
India-US relations were elevated to a “comprehensive global strategic partnership” during President Donald Trump’s visit to India in 2020, a year when the India-US relations solidified at an unprecedented scale despite the COVID-19 pandemic.
A new cold war
The Biden administration has categorised China as America’s “most serious competitor” and expressed its determination to “confront China’s economic abuses” and “counter its aggressive, coercive action”. America has been preparing to tackle the China challenge in the Indo-Pacific region for the last 10 years. It has initiated measures to decouple its economy from the Chinese economy to reduce its dependence and vulnerability, in the wake of the COVID pandemic. It has rebalanced the military posture towards the Indo-Pacific by the formation of ‘Quad’ with democratic countries of India, Australia and Japan and reaffirmed its commitment to freedom of navigation in the Indo- Pacific region. It has reaffirmed security commitments to Asian allies. Forged new strategic partnerships with India, Indonesia and Vietnam. A new Cold War may be said to be emerging between China and the United States.
China is emerging as a rich and strong country with vital interests spanning the globe. China expects India to be subservient by accepting China’s emergence as the leading power in South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region. It desires India to accept the Chinese geopolitical projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, and refrain from security cooperation with the United States.
China’s aggression in the Himalayan region of Ladakh demonstrates its behavioural shift in challenging its largest neighbour, which is only going to increase as China accelerates its military capabilities. China’s rise in the region necessitates India to forge closer security relationship with political reliable, like-minded states. Towards this end, it has already begun to deepen bilateral defence ties with Japan, the US, Australia and other regional players threatened by China, through ‘Quad’.
Recent significant events
Firstly, the Quad Summit at the leaders’ level was the most significant international event of the recent times hosted by the US after President Biden took over. The summit put forth three practical areas of cooperation in vaccine manufacturing and delivery, critical and emerging technologies, and climate change. The vaccine initiative aims to utilise the strengths of each partner – India’s manufacturing capacity, US technology and Australia’s logistics capability to manufacture vaccines and export them amongst Indo- Pacific countries.
Second is the successful visit of US Secretary of Defence General Lloyd Austin to India, the first in-person visit since the new administration took office. Third, the special forces bilateral exercise, ‘Vajra Prahar’, just concluded in India, signifying increase military-to-military cooperation. Fourth, India and the US launched a bilateral initiative on artificial intelligence last week under the Indo-US Science and Technology Forum. Fifth, Apple started manufacturing iPhones in India. Sixth, is Ocugen, a biopharma company in Pennsylvania, announcing that it would approach the FDA for emergency use authorisation of COVID-19 vaccine developed by their partner in India, Bharat Biotech. Seventh, the US became India’s second-largest supplier of oil overtaking middle eastern countries.
The evolving relationship
It is important to consider the Russian factor in the evolving relationship between India and the US. The US-Russia ties have strained after the exit of Donald Trump from the White House. The world is seeing a fresh spurt of rivalry between the US and Russia. Biden-Putin tussle took a serious turn on March 17, when the US president called his Russian counterpart a “killer” and in retaliation, Putin called back his diplomats from the US to vent out his frustration. There is a strong lobby in the US’s corridor of power that advocates sanctions on countries having deeper defence ties with Russia through the “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) of 2017. This act was introduced by Trump as the US’s response to the alleged interference by Russia in its 2016 presidential polls. This legislation will have a direct influence on all Russian- India military deals including buying five S-400 missile system at $ 5.4 billion.
US imposed sanctions on Turkey in December 2020 for buying S-400 from Russia. India is being speculated to be next in line to face the sanctions under CAATSA. But India presents a difficult choice for the US. Whether India is to be granted a special waiver or not remains an open question. It appears that the US is likely to offer an exception to India on the sanctions or else it would strain India-US defence trade ties, and affect the “Quad” that is finally taking off after more than a decade. India is too important for the US to close ties with. Of late Pakistan has veered towards China more than the US. India is the only trusted friend of the US in South Asia today and it cannot afford to lose it.
Russia has been India’s traditional defence shop with almost 60% Russian weapon systems in the Indian army. India aims to become a major arms exporter in collaboration with Russia with commercial production of Brahmos missile, T-90 tanks and SU-30 fighter planes. Russia has good relations with China and views China as a partner. Russian influence could be utilised in future to exert friendly persuasion on China to refrain from an open conflict with India if required. Therefore, India requires both the US and Russia and needs to follow a zigzag course to maintain a balance between both. With the Moscow-Washington relationship in a downward spiral, Indian diplomacy will require a careful approach in its interactions with the two. India should sign defence pacts and conduct military drills with both the U.S. and Russia (and other countries like France, Germany, Italy, Israel etc as well). Putting all eggs in one basket might create overdependence on one partner and ultimately not serve Indian interests well.
The rise of China is central to Indo-US ties. China’s rise to great power status during the last 30 years has changed the power equation that had existed in the 1990s between China and India and China and the US. The remarkable increase in the size of China’s economy enabled it to step up the modernisation of its armed forces and enhance its technological capabilities. China’s defence expenditure is four times larger than India’s and nearly a third of America’s. This alteration in the power equation has pushed China’s relationships with India and the United States into a state of disequilibrium. China is no longer interested in maintaining the previous patterns of its relationships with India and the United States. Instead, China wishes to forge new types of relationships with India and the United States that are reflective of the balance of power. India and America are, however, not willing to accept a redefinition of their relationships with China entailing the abandonment of their respective long-held national interests.
In the new cold war, India has to decide from which side it will benefit more. Pakistan is a close ally of China and an enemy of India. China’s expansionist designs in the South China Sea, Indo-Pacific region and on the borders with India at the Himalayas, leaves little choice for India to choose. India cannot tackle Chinese aggression on its own and requires the assistance of like-minded countries to stand up against Chinese expansionist designs. The US is the most obvious choice. Similarly, the US also requires a strong country in South Asia, which can stand up to the challenges posed by rising China in the region. For the US, the obvious choice is India. India is forging security cooperation with the United States and its Asian allies to be in a better position to deal with the challenges posed by China.
The Quad- a grouping of India, the US, Japan and Australia is finally taking off. The recent visit of US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin to New Delhi indicates the Biden administration’s commitment to deepening strategic ties with India. Earlier, India had been reluctant to join ‘Quad’ openly due to fear of straining its ties with China, which considers ‘Quad’ as a security grouping against China. But recent India-China face-off in Ladakh and Galwan valley forced India to play its cards more aggressively and gave a final push to ‘Quad’. India and the United States have resolved to closely cooperate in support of freedom of navigation, territory integrity, and robust security architecture in the Indo-Pacific region. Russia is also against the formation of ‘Quad’ and is a close ally of China. At the same time, by joining ‘Quad’, India has given a signal to Russia that the security interest of India matters the most in its foreign policy.
As a natural extension of an evolving relationship, India should also explore the option of opening partnership talks for becoming a NATO partner. This would send a clear message to China that more aggressive actions by it could push India from ‘Quad’ to the NATO alliance. In this emerging situation, India is a vital player and strengthening ties with NATO could pay dividends in dissuading Chinese aggression in future.
Conclusion
The rival actions and reactions of China, India and the United States – the three main actors in the Indo-Pacific – are likely to determine the pattern of the new Cold War. India aspires for multipolarity not just in the international system but also in Asia where it does not want to play second fiddle to China. China, however, appears committed to denying peer status to India. The India-US relationship has broadened and deepened into a comprehensive global strategic partnership. India is stepping up defence preparedness and contemplating force restructuring to become better prepared and capable against China in the wake of any future military crisis.
